Sun, October 19, 2008
We Hardly Knew Ye—11:41 AM
It should come as no surprise that there is a preponderance of McCain yard signs here in Florida. This week, though, one neighbor put out his annual Halloween decorations a little too close to his political signs. The combined result is amusing – and more than a little prescient.
Rest in peace, McCain/Palin ticket. It was fun while it lasted.
Joe Mulder — Wed, 10/22/08 1:22pm
Heh. I would argue with you, but, the RealClearPolitics.com aggregate of polls is swinging back in Obama's direction after a brief uptick for McCain. So, that's pretty much that.
Bee Boy — Wed, 10/22/08 3:15pm
Anything can happen. Anything. So I would pretty much refuse to say "that's that" unless Obama came at me with a phone handset, Punch Drunk Love-style. Still, it does look pretty bad for McCain these days – though polls tell me less about that than the frustrated look in his eyes when he says stuff you can tell he wishes he weren't being forced to say.
It amazes me how much coverage the "popular vote" polls get, compared to the electoral map situation, which is still how we elect a president. Real Clear Politics buries their map sort of low on the page – I like it front-and-center like Nate shows it on FiveThirtyEight.com. Then again, I suppose if you want the story to still seem interesting, you focus on the numbers that make it at least look close.
Joe Mulder — Wed, 10/22/08 4:03pm
RealClearPolitics has looked the same for like six years, so it's not like they're hiding the electoral map because it looks worse for McCain than the national polls (not that that's what you were saying).
From what I can tell, conventional wisdom suggests that the vote in the battleground states (like, I guess, Ohio and Florida) will reflect the national vote, at least roughly, and since national polls are done more frequently by more different entities, the national average is a quick shorthand for how things are looking.
For instance, the most recent Virgina poll they have at RealClearPolitics dates back to the 20th and 21st, but the average of the Virginia polls, which puts Obama up by 6.8, incorporates polls that stretch back all the way to October 11th (four days before the final debate).
I think that's why I emphasize the aggregate of the national polls; the advantage is that it gives a little bit better picture of what's happening right now, as opposed to last week. The disadvantage, of course, is that it doesn't take the electoral map into play.
By the way, in case it wasn't obvious how big of a nerd I am for this stuff, see the previous four paragraphs, in which I break down the various advantages and disadvantages of following national poll numbers vs. polling from battleground states. Scintillating!
(well, to me it is)
By the way, if I had bothered to look at the state polls, I would have seen that the most recent ones in Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina and Nevada look good for McCain, and Virginia may be trending his way (hard to say, though).
This is where the electoral business comes into play; if McCain can't flip Pennsylvania (and it doesn't look like he can), and he loses a couple of Bush states like Colorado and New Mexico and Iowa, it might not matter.
Anyway. Fun stuff.