Wed, December 13, 2006
Wrong About Jon
It's been pointed out to me that I was wrong about Jon (twice, in fact; I was still hoping my early prediction of a Jon/Ozzy final two would pan out). I was also wrong about Parvati (damn editors!) and – apparently – Sid Yost. But I think I was much wronger about Yul.
Everyone's been wrong about Yul, at least a little bit. Those who underestimated him because of his quiet, brooding style were unprepared for him to have the mini idol and a plan for victory. People like Becky who think of him as a big ol' sweetie pie weren't prepared for him to start proposing things like hiding food from people. I have to admit, I was surprised, too. He always seemed to play more of a tactical mental game rather than a bitchy nutritional one. And people like Jon and I, who saw a cutthroat strategic streak in him – well, we were wrong, too. Because any way you look at it, Jonathan made Yul's absolute best choice for the final two. Now who does he plan to take?
Obviously not Adam.
Parvati? I don't really see it. At what point will he have the numbers to arrange a vote against Becky or Sundra first?
Ozzy? Well, the scenes from next week indicate he's looking to push Ozzy out of the alliance, which ordinarily means he and Ozzy will become best friends and possibly start a small business together. Ozzy makes sense for F2 because he's not that well liked, but by the time Yul has engineered the ousters of 80% of the jury, he might be better liked than Yul.
Sundra or Becky? Better liked than Ozzy, and their hands are clean from every single TribCon vote.
I'm not saying Yul will necessarily be in the final two. Anything can happen, and the mini idol hasn't helped anyone else get there. People have time to get smart and mount a vote against him – though they'd have to do it twice in a row to get the mini idol out of the way first, which will probably petrify them. There's also the chance he'll be eliminated after the final four vote, once the mini idol is deactivated – but that assumes his chosen F3 will fall out of love with him, which seems unlikely.
Regardless, Yul has to play the game as though he's going to the final two. So, what gives? Either he's relentlessly devoted to giving Becky the million dollars or he's dropped the ball on an intelligent jury strategy.
It's hard to explain what flipped in Yul. It seems unlikely that it has to do with Jonathan's personality, and a strategy of appeasing those who don't like him around camp, because that issue peaked after last week's reward challenge, and he still got rid of Candice over the strong objections of her little alliance. But by the time the contestants and their family members (ah, family visits – remember when this was a survival game?) win a visit to a tribal celebration and picnic (do the Cook Islands exist solely on a tribal-celebration-based economy?), Jon is already being fiercely excluded.
Ozzy's back at camp, neither picnicking nor exiled, and he's returned to his asshole roots. He's barking about how he fed Adam and Parvati, which helped them win the challenge. Which is tenuous at best because he hasn't been sharing food with them (part of Yul's moral game?) and I don't think strength or nutrition played much of a part in the reward challenge. Even the weakest members were able to fling water from their bucket to the other side of the fence – it's mostly a matter of luck, and some skill. (And, watching Coach Probst describe it, I had to laugh, seeing it through the family members' eyes. "Shit – this is what he's been putting them through?") Ozzy subsequently aligns with Becky to support Yul's plan of hiding food from anyone not within their final four alliance (he's so... moral!), but Becky explains that this plan was pretty much abandoned as soon as Adam and Parvati came back from their ceremonial picnic with armloads of food to share. Seems like if you could live with yourself depriving others of food to gain a marginal strength advantage in challenges, you should be able to live with yourself accepting their gifts, too. But, whatever. Survivor morality is an ever-shifting line in the sand.
Jon returns, to silent treatment, and everyone competes for immunity by running a race across an obstacle course in the water. Only Ozzy does so with sufficient gusto to win Coach Probst's approval. Ozzy sprints across the bobbing barrels too quickly to fall, while others fall repeatedly and resort to sliding across on their bellies – so Coach Probst dresses them down. "You're being too cautious! Attack this course!" Some do, a little, but not enough to catch up to Ozzy, who grins in an interview that it was fun to watch everyone hurting themselves while they tried to catch up with him. What an angel!
Jon reads the wind and offers another plea for Yul's mercy, since everyone seems to be devoting full-time to hating him at this point. He makes an odd judgment error here, though, appealing to Yul's sense of fairness since Jon helped Yul and Aitu by flipping when he did. Seems like his better argument is that the strategies of the other players are wildly unpredictable and Jon is the ideal final two candidate. Maybe the editors just cut that part out.
Or maybe Yul has just lost his mind. In a conversation with Ozzy, he rationalizes the choice to abandon all strategy and depend on the Aitu final four sticking together and doing everything exactly as he hopes. "The girls are strong," they say, referring to Becky and Sundra. "I think our final four is solid as long as nobody does anything crazy." Like, for instance, Sundra deciding she'd like to do better than final four? Wanting to win a million dollars?! She crazy!
Nevertheless, they've convinced themselves they can get by without Jon, so out he goes in a unanimous vote. Adam and Candice exchange grins, air kisses, and gang signs. (He literally licked his lips when he first laid eyes on her new shampooed look.) They're so happy! I don't know why Jon's ouster matters so much to them, but hey.
Probst adopts a scolding tone, and points out that they've voted out someone who thought he could trust them, "which means now trust should be an issue for every. Single. Person. In. This. Game." I'm actually behind Coach Probst, here, but he's wasting his breath. You'll never get these idiots to figure out how to play the final six intelligently. It always becomes a crazy, panicked popularity contest with all kinds of irrational last-minute flip-flopping and blindsiding. It's because nobody has figured out how to hide the sub-alliance problem (except – though it pains me to say it – AmbeRob, who hid their sub-alliance in plain sight). People on the outskirts get antsy, and they do stupid things, and it devolves into chaos. I wish Probst could get through to them, but I know it's a lost cause.
As Jon leaves, he kind of giggles in his last interview about how the remaining people will now be forced to deal with each other – something they richly deserve. He also says – to someone, I'm not sure who – that he wants his hat back at some point. Yep, he and I play the game almost exactly the same. We're friendly and honest when we can be, but we're playing a strategy game and we'll let you know that starkly and frankly whenever necessary. Then, once we lose, we're whiny little douche bags, we hate you, and we want our stuff back. (Fortunately, the entire jury has this whiny, hateful douche bag thing in common at this point.)
© onebee · all rights reserved