Tue, April 11, 2006

Half the Survivor contestants are gone, and Shane has still yet to be removed from the island on a stretcher. It's a shame; it truly is. However, the strategy among the eight who remain would best be described as "hyperactive clusterfuck," so the show should be pretty interesting even though most of the good people are gone. Not that any of them were ever good. Let's not forget, they're Survivor contestants, which puts them pretty low on the ladder – somewhere between Sean Hannity and Slobodan Miloševic (Colleen notwithstanding). Anyhow, let's take a look at the remnants:

Sally

The Story So Far: She's bounced from team to team with pluck, aplomb, and a pleasant smile that says, "I'm a guy's guy, but I'm also a girl's girl, if you catch my meaning." She adapts well, gets along easily with others, and understands the political atmosphere of Survivor very well, but an early failure at alliance-building seems to have scared her off strategizing her own offense. She's my favorite, because she doesn't fall into the typical traps, like thinking she can use emotional pleas to guilt people into changing their alliances, or asking for that pointless "heads-up" before she's blindsided at Tribal Council. She's easygoing and seems to be having a good time. Based on the clip show, we've learned she's recently divorced and her Bible-thumping parents have essentially disowned her. Hmmmmmm. (She also worked construction one summer. Hm!)

The Strategy: As I said, seemingly nonexistent. She works hard in challenges, makes friends easily, and appears willing to consider any strategic move, but you don't often see her coming up with one of her own. Mostly, she's been on the losing end of a numbers game in every situation she's been in, but you can make a move when you're in that spot – and so far she hasn't. Next week seems like the perfect time to strike, but now she's become hypnotized by the Myth of Terry. She believes he and his mini idol will magically save her, which may prevent her from taking action.

Why She'll Win: She's likable and capable, which means she could eke out a key immunity victory and she could survive the inevitable meltdown of Casaya's alliance. Especially if she ends up being the last La Mina standing (admittedly a tough feat, given Terry's mini idol), she could take advantage of the final-six schism, and ride things out to the end with all her La Mina friends on the jury and no enemies from the Casaya side.

Why She Won't: The numbers. Casaya still has a huge numbers advantage and seems to love the idea of picking off La Mina one by one. If Sally loses immunity next week, she's gone.

Odds of Winning: 20-to-1.

Cirie

The Story So Far: Cirie auditioned for Survivor, despite a pathological fear of leaves. This is like going on Big Brother if you're phobic about garish IKEA furniture, or signing up for Jeopardy! if you're afraid of things being phrased in the form of a question. It was announced very early that Cirie would be the second or third person voted out of the game, but this never came to pass. She's never formally allied with anyone, but seems to have found a home among the motley remains of Casaya, which is more of a voting bloc than an alliance. (Not that an alliance is any better; it just adds some dopey promises and so-called "friendships" to the mix. Plus, occasionally you have to give your kid to someone.) Most of her time is spent making fun of the people who are in alliances, pointing out their mistakes, and laughing at their idiosyncrasies. After watching some enjoyable "straight dope" interviews with her in the infernal clip show, I've decided I don't dislike Cirie as much as I thought I did. It's just that she's fundamentally unqualified to be a Survivor contestant. And I don't like that, for the same reason I don't like old people on The Amazing Race – why take up a slot that could go to a more deserving person? Cirie would make a tremendous host of Survivor: Nurse Cirie would bring all the snide comments of Coach Probst without the cautious subtlety, and I get the feeling there'd be a great Oprah/Judge Judy vibe at Tribal Council. But as a player? Meh.

The Strategy: Keep quiet, provide a listening ear for the people who are actually playing the game, fit into their plans where they need you, and hope to ride things out until you can make a move. I really want to tear this strategy apart, but considering how well it's working for her (and Sandra and Tina before her), I can't. Fuck.

Why She'll Win: Because, despite all my furious gnashing of teeth and screaming of expletives, it is exceedingly easy to win when you stay below the radar. Intentionally or not, she's managed to acquaint herself with almost everyone in the group without making enemies, so she should have her pick of alliances once the six (or, more likely, five) remaining Casaya people split up. Look for her to become a sought-after swing vote at a pivotal moment. (Always vote for the swing vote!)

Why She Won't: You've got people like Bruce, Terry, Aras, and Shane who are all fighting to keep themselves in the game and don't want some chubby nobody swooping in at the last minute to stand on their shoulders and collect their million. So, expect her to get bounced out once Casaya becomes every man for himself. (I know, Shane "bet" Terry that she'd be in his final four, but remember, Shane just admonished his entire brood that they should protect information at all costs – you can assume Shane was either lying or delirious: unreliable information in any case. Of course, if he were lying and delirious, those might cancel each other out. This is why I could never go on Survivor – I'd lay awake nights trying to figure out the mental workings of someone like Shane.)

Odds of Winning: 12-to-1.

Courtney

The Story So Far: Courtney is categorically incapable of interacting socially with other humans. So, she landed on the right team in Casaya. She's childish, emotional, unpredictable, and stupid. It's kind of surprising how often she butts heads with Shane, considering they suffer from the same inability to filter their thoughts between their brains and their mouths. She plays the game exactly the way I wouldn't: emotional reflex reactions to each individual event, based more on who made her feel bad than on what might advance her in the game. Shane drafted her into an early alliance, where she rode out the part of the game when people like her should be eliminated, and now she's riding out the merge as part of his voting bloc. On her own, she'd be dead in ten minutes – on Survivor, in the Panamanian jungle, or just at the food court in the mall. She's completely unable to gauge any situation she's in. The most priceless exchange from this past week:

Courtney: It's a real simple vote.

Aras: Sally.

Courtney: What?

I'm reminded of a statistic from one of Al Franken's books – that researchers at the UPenn Annenberg School for Communication crunched some statistics and found that Rush Limbaugh's listeners were simultaneously the least informed about world affairs, and described themselves to be the most informed. Courtney seems just like a Dittohead in this scene.

The Strategy: If there is one, I suppose it's to ally with decisive people, and follow their lead. More often, there seems to be no strategy at all, just knee-jerk responses to whatever has happened to her in the past ten minutes (or whatever she thinks has happened).

Why She'll Win: She's a moron, but she's up against even dumber morons, and she's insulated herself fairly well from any votes in the final six. Also, if she makes it to the final two, it will likely be against someone like Shane, which is an easy win.

Why She Won't: She's not particularly good in challenges, and not particularly well liked. If she ends up in the final three, she's unlikely to win the final endurance immunity challenge, or – if she does – to defeat anyone less psychotic than she (which is most people) in the jury vote.

Odds of Winning: 12-to-1.

Danielle

The Story So Far: Why can't women with breast implants go on non-starvation reality programs, like The Apprentice or Fear Factor? At first it's like, "Yay! Boobs!" but then a few weeks in, her entire figure shrinks around them, and then it's like, "Oh. Silly Putty. I have plenty of that in my pantry. I can't masturbate to that!" It's a real let-down, considering this is pretty much the only reason I watch Survivor any more. It's even more disappointing because in my pea-sized brain, I was thinking, "It sure would be nice for Danielle to win. She's hot, although otherwise boorish and fairly obnoxious." When I should have been thinking, "This boorish, obnoxious dope should be booted off this island right away – she should be back home, hocking Klonopin and braying at frat guys on Ladies' Night." Such is the power of boobs. (But it's not just me! You saw the footage in the clip show! I've seen mammograms that were less intimate!)

The Strategy: Seemingly identical to Courtney's, but she seems to react more impulsively in critical situations. However, there are indications that she is thinking things through: her weekend on Exile Island with Austin showed that she can have a conversation, and her reaction to Terry's offer shows that she can weigh her options; she managed to figure out that – for now – she's much better off with Casaya.

Why She'll Win: She's willing to change up the game if it becomes necessary (see: her re-jiggering of the vote against Bruce/Bobby). She's fairly competitive, and she's approachable, which means that when the alliances start to shuffle, she may have some options. Apart from her rift with Shane, which seems somewhat repaired, she hasn't made any enemies on the jury (as of press time).

Why She Won't: There's some evidence that she's on the low end of Casaya's voting order for the final six. Having been spurned in his advances, Terry may not re-approach her when and if he takes control of the game. She has the capacity to quickly alienate any or all of the jury.

Odds of Winning: 10-to-1.

Shane

The Story So Far: Good Christ, is he the most sociopathic Survivor contestant we've ever had. Certainly the most sociopathic Survivor contestant and former My So-Called Life guest star. Just as I don't believe you should sign up for Survivor if you are afraid of leaves, I don't think you should go if you are in the process of quitting a three-pack-a-day smoking habit, or if you take alliance oaths so seriously that you actually fear for your son's life if you should switch your vote. The clip show informed us that Shane's kid is actually named "Boston" (I could have sworn it was Newport), which at least shows that he didn't make Bobby swear on a random city that one time. Did anyone else figure this out? Because I was completely stumped and I think it's the responsibility of the editors to make it clear that the kid's name is Boston if they're going to leave in the "I swear on Boston" line. Besides, what kind of nut job names his kid Boston? If you're going to name your kid after a city, pick something normal like Weehawken, NJ, or Truth or Consequences, NM.

The Strategy: Come on. Be serious.

Why He'll Win: He and Aras have controlled the game for a long time, so maybe there's some way they can continue that. A well timed immunity win could be all it takes. (They sometimes have chain-smoking immunity challenges, don't they?)

Why He Won't: What jury vote could he possibly win? Only if he and Aras are the final two, and Aras has alienated everyone by publicly and arrogantly masterminding their successive eliminations.

Odds of Winning: 8-to-1.

Bruce

The Story So Far: Arriving on the island with over thirty years of fire-building, water-purifying, and machete-wielding experience, Bruce was quickly kicked to the curb in the mini-merge kickball pick, and spent five out of seven consecutive nights on Exile Island. Never among the popular clique, he's been spared by Casaya's winning streak. He and Bobby swore to switch to La Mina as soon as the teams merged, but by the time this came to pass, Bruce was better off staying put for the time being. It may not seem like it, since he's not tight with anyone at Casaya and unlikely to survive the final five, but he's figured out that by the time there's a final five, all hell will have broken loose, alliance-wise. The largest sub-group within the six is two: Shane and Aras, or Courtney and Danielle. And these people are all stupid and fairly weak, physically. He'd be better off competing against them than competing against Terry, Nick, Austin, or Sally. Sure, he'd have the numbers in his favor in the short term, but he's got to look beyond that. Which is why he turned down Terry, twice in a row. It's not because his friends are in the other voting bloc; they're just the easiest people to beat later.

The Strategy: Bruce plays his own game. He wants to depend on his survival skills most of all, and he'll adjust his loyalties to give himself the best advantage in any situation. He doesn't discuss strategy much; he just talks about his voting options when someone approaches him with a plan.

Why He'll Win: He's the strongest player in the Casaya voting bloc, and if he outlasts the rest of them, he'll do it fairly quietly, so he won't have many enemies on the jury. He's well respected by people like Terry and Austin, who tend to be opinion leaders.

Why He Won't: He hasn't exactly befriended Terry by twice rebuffing his alliance bids. And Shane and Aras currently have a stranglehold on the voting in the Casaya group. If that group doesn't implode according to Bruce's expectations, he'll be voted out quickly.

Odds of Winning: 5-to-1.

Aras

The Story So Far: He began as the charmingly aloof yoga instructor but quickly turned into the arrogant asshole who thinks he's everybody's dad. The most frustrating thing about his insistent belief that he's controlling the whole game is that it's true. People are letting him do it. He must have some sort of Boston Rob Svengali power over these rubes. He shamelessly flaunts his directorial role in every situation – sure it's meant success for his brood so far, but how can they not be bristling at this? I'll give Courtney credit for one thing – faced with the possibility that Terry might produce the mini idol after a close vote and send Aras packing, she said, "Well, Aras does have to go sometime." Quite true. I'm getting just about tired of watching him fix his little dad-glance upon people, like Cirie in Tribal Council when she dares to say something about the lack of unity at camp.

The Strategy: Tell everyone what to do. Force them to vote your way, and make them feel they have something to gain from it.

Why He'll Win: Good God, it's working! He's got the numbers and he's got the mind control, so he's set to coast right on through to the end if people don't wise up.

Why He Won't: They've got to wise up, don't they? If not, there's always the mini idol.

Odds of Winning: 4-to-1.

Terry

The Story So Far: From the start, Terry seemed inseparable from his spacewalking man friend Dan, but then those plucky Casaya kids started kicking ass in the immunity challenges, and Terry had to sacrifice his cuddle time with the moon man in order to improve La Mina's chances for survival. By then, of course, he had a backup plan: the mini idol he uncovered in eight seconds of searching on Exile Island. (Not that this is any evidence of great genius – by then, the clues were as obvious as the route markers on The Amazing Race: Family Edition.) He's an incredibly friendly and forthright guy, and he seems to be a powerhouse when it comes to immunity challenges. (So... why did La Mina lose so many?) Now he's hemmed in a bit by the post-merge numbers game, but he's working hard every day at devising new plans for victory and he's still got his ace in the hole.

The Strategy: Contingencies, contingencies, contingencies! Terry is an excellent Survivor strategist, because he combines the resolve of a team leader with the flexibility of an individual player in a nice ratio. Seeing the value in numbers, he's willing to make sacrifices to keep the votes, but he also knows that in the end, he's there to eliminate everyone else, so he has to play for himself when the chips are down.

This week, he was crazy enough to offer up the mini idol as a bribe to get Danielle to switch alliances – something not so crazy when you think about it. If she had accepted, he would have had the numbers to take out Shane and Aras, currently his two mightiest threats. Plus, now she knows he has it, which is going to have to make her nervous in upcoming votes. He can threaten to vote for Danielle in any TribCon, and she knows that if Casaya votes for Terry, he and the mini idol can send her home. When the voting bloc starts to break down, she may seek asylum with him. But why didn't he give the mini idol to Austin when the vote was revealed? Sure, this would have been the perfect time to boot Aras, but that doesn't that really gain Terry anything right now. He still wouldn't have the numbers after that move: Shane, Bruce, and the girls would outnumber him 5-to-3, and now he's fairly confident that Bruce and Danielle aren't planning to jump ship. He's better off playing his own game and saving the mini idol in case he needs it. Plus, as much as he'd like to keep his pals around for security, he knows they represent larger threats than most of the Casaya group, so if he's the last La Mina standing, he'll fare pretty well. They're not exactly doing him a favor, picking off La Mina one by one, but they're not crippling him, either. It's certainly paid dividends in one area: Nick's post-vote farewell speech was the best in Survivor history. He tossed aside all the petty bickering about who thought who was a threat, left out the wide-eyed swooning at what a great experience it was, and just hopped on a soap box and told the kids out there to fight for their dreams. Hell, I liked it even better than Clooney's Oscar speech.

Why He'll Win: He's got the mini idol and he's winning every goddamn immunity challenge. There may come a time when he has to throw immunity, just to be able to deploy the mini idol and send someone else home. He's got La Mina's jury votes locked up, since he fought for them to stay, and he has the respect of people like Bruce who will probably also end up on the jury.

Why He Won't: Because Tom did. He's a target – now and in the jury vote – because he's played such a strong game. Maybe someone will find a way to take him out. (Plus, there's always the chance it's him on that stretcher.)

Odds of Winning: 2-to-1.

POLL:

Friends, Romans, Gitanos

Which was a more compelling and stirring speech?

	Conan O'Brien: Harvard commencement address
	Nick Stanbury: Survivor final words
	Abraham Lincoln: Gettysburg Address

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