Tue, November 1, 2005

Week seven of Survivor, and it's bubble time on the island. (Despite the fact that it's not actually an island.) With their population dwindling, players are doing whatever they can to stay below the radar and make it to the (apparently inevitable) merge. I've previously referred to this as the "pre-merge doldrums," because strategy takes a back seat and nothing interesting really happens.

Unless you count daybreak at Yaxha, which plays more like a scene from Trauma: Life in the ER. Amy's ankle is still a mess, and Bobby Jon and Brandon are comparing open, festering sores. Bobby Jon refers to the fact that some of his come from the ball-rolling challenge, so maybe these started out as scrapes? It's hard to say – but they're really gross. Which begs the question: when exactly does the Survivor medical team step in to take care of these people? All Michael Skupin had to do was dive into a campfire, and Burnett's personal helicopter was there to whisk him away to the free clinic at Canberra U. Why can't these guys get an ankle brace and some frickin' ointment? (I'm starting to agree with Flo - don't let them die out there!)

What they get instead is chocolate by the fistful, courtesy of this week's bizarre fabric-winding challenge, at which clumsy stumbler Lydia once again reveals herself to be a liability for Nakum. Yaxha walks away with the prize: a zip line tour of the jungle canopy and a chocolate feast. As a momentum-builder, this is a fine reward, but it hardly offers much beyond that: the zip line looks fun but brief (although the editors have a fine idea – intercutting footage of howling monkeys to hint at the possibility of an ambush high above the jungle floor), and the chocolate smorgasbord – like something out of the "Mattel and Mars Bars Quick Energy Chocobot Hour" – could actually weaken Yaxha if they gorge on too much sweets.

To counteract this, they invite Nakum over to share their confectionary booty at a birthday pool party for Danni. Hey, if we're going to get sick on all this chocolate, then at least they will, too! It couldn't come at a better time: Nakum is exhibiting symptoms of advanced ennui – playing Uno with handmade cards (leaves with numbers painted on them) that are entirely see-through. Ten more minutes and Cindy will be braiding Judd's hair.

After the party, at which everyone works hard to avoid too much fraternizing so as not to seem threatening pre-merge, Nakum roundly defeats Yaxha in a puzzle-unearthing/puzzle-building challenge, and Probst gets all excited for them, cheering their teamwork accomplishments. He's elated that they "worked well together" and "did not panic" – like it's his job to teach them life lessons. This is like the third week in a row that he's proudly dropped these little character-building pearls into his conversation with the teams. Who is this guy, Mike Brady? Probst, just get us from the season premiere to the obnoxious reunion show – leave out the motivational speaking in between.

Anyway, Yaxha is off to another Tribal Council, at which "bond" is the watchword. Still vying for Probst's approval rather than each other's, the teammates repeat again and again how close they are and how difficult it is to vote for anyone. People, wait until you're voting off a jury member to get this teary-eyed – it does you no good at this point. Although Bobby Jon's repeat status makes him the early target for elimination, in the end Yaxha plays it safe and votes for the hobbled Amy. She lurches away into the night, and Probst pounces on the remaining Yaxhateers with... brand new red buffs! Insta-merge! It's up to them to row over to Nakum and deliver the news.

So, ten little Indians remain and now they're all one family. What are their chances of surviving post-merge, and making it to the final two? Well, I'll tell you.

Bobby Jon

Did he win sympathy with his "lifelong dream" of making it into the Survivor jury, or did everyone just delay the inevitable, figuring, "His repeat status will make him an easy target post-merge"? I'm going with the latter; based on our previous knowledge of Bobby Jon, he possesses neither the mental nor physical strength to be a top contender. Final ten, absolutely. Final two, not so much. (And by the way, if this was his lifelong dream, he's known about Tribal Council for 28 years? He really should've registered that idea – now Burnett's making millions off his concept!) Odds: 19-1

Brandon

So far, he's been strong at challenges without grabbing too much of the spotlight. From what we've seen, his participation in the gossip/strategy at camp is subtle and withdrawn, which will make him difficult for others to target as the pack thins out. He'll be able to pull out an immunity win when he needs one. Odds: 11-9

Cindy

Also strong and relatively quiet. Her biggest challenge will be remaining on Judd's good side until he's gone – he seems to clash with a different woman every week and he's proven he can motivate others to vote along with his whim. Also, Cindy needs to build a few friendships so she's not seen as an easy consolation vote when a tie seems imminent. Odds: 7-3

Danni

She's spunky as hell, but she won't make it to the final two unless Sally Struthers parachutes in with a stack of MREs under her arm. They don't give out Pontiac Azteks to ossified corpses, no matter how cute their challenge bottoms are. Odds: 19-1

Gary

He hasn't exactly remained an opinion leader the way Tom did in Palau (for a quarterback, he plays an awful lot of defense), and his nom de guerre routine is wearing thin. Amy never stopped harping on it (despite her willing suspension of disbelief), and Danni's likely to ask more about it, post-merge. Plus, he hasn't shown himself to be the brightest guy in the huddle, either. This week, Amy said she'd "track down every Gary Hawkins in Grand Haven," if she found out he lied to her about his NFL past. His smug response to the camera was that "there's no such thing as a Gary Hawkins in Grand Haven." Yeah, Prince Geniusly of Scheme Mountain, but remember: CBS tends to air Survivor, often nationwide. So she won't really have to Google "Gary Hawkins" to track you down. Ass. (Although how funny would it be if – in a Johnny Trishellehump "Grandma B" moment – there actually were a Gary Hawkins in Grand Haven, MI. "Eep," he squeaks as he watches Amy's threat unfold on TV. By the next morning, he and his cat and his collectible Pizza Hut NASCAR glasses are 200 miles outside of town. His Dodge Neon is sucking fumes but he's determined to make it to the border – any border – before he slows down.) Odds: 4-1

Jamie

For him: physically strong, relatively well liked among New Nakum. (And, strangely, seen as unthreatening by Judd.) Against him: clashes with Bobby Jon will only be amplified by post-merge proximity. Odds: 3-2

Judd

He's a gruff, obstinate loudmouth, but he seems generally cuddly and very team-oriented. However, a quick stroll by TWoP indicates that apparently he's hated at levels we haven't seen since Omarosa. Okay, then! I suppose it's only a matter of time before he rubs enough people the wrong way. My guess: three more weeks – that's when he'll be a convenient target to avoid a 4-4 tie. Odds: 17-3

Lydia

C'mon. Please. Odds: 1 Yanktillion-1

Rafe

I detest the living shit out of this snippy, sibilant little fucktart, but that's just because he got on my bad side early and then ruined a bunch of challenges since then. He keeps quiet and his strategic approach is either brilliant or rock stupid. So it's kind of a toss-up how far he'll go, game-wise. To get to the final two, though, he'll need to win a lot of immunity challenges or befriend some ox who'll protect him. The former just ain't happening, and so far he hasn't seemed appropriately cozy with any of the other guys. Odds: 9-1

Stephenie

For her: she's amazing, she's nothing but heart, she's absolutely driven to win. Against her: she's repeating, which is bound to become target-worthy at some point, and we've seen her melt down in clutch individual immunity challenges before. Odds: 7-3

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