Tue, March 23, 2004

All right, here goes. I've been trying desperately and unsuccessfully for almost two seasons to come up with a Survivor column I can be proud of (I'm not only my own worst critic; I'm that guy who looks at my worst critic and says "What the hell does that sycophantic hack know?!") and I think I might finally be onto something. See, I've always wanted a "hook" – some kernel that I can start with and build an entire column around. Something other than just recapping the week's events, but something that makes a larger point and uses the latest episode (and others) as part of the supporting argument. And the point I'm going to try to make this week is that everybody on Survivor is terrible at strategy and refuses to do the simple work of thinking a few steps ahead or even trying to imagine what someone else is thinking.

Occasionally, what I'll do is want so badly for someone on this show to be intelligent that I'll end up convincing myself – actually believing that they have a strategy, and they're just hiding it expertly. But it never turns out to be true. That Brian guy from Thailand kind of seemed to have a strategy. And Hatch did, at least the first time. This time Jenna occasionally seems to be paying attention, but I think it's more wishful thinking on my part. In the same way that I wished with all my might that Darrah was silently scheming through the endgame of Pearl Islands, I really want to believe that Amber has an ace up her sleeve with this whole Rob thing. Well, she doesn't really wear sleeves... her bikini strap. Okay, she barely wears those either. I just really really want Amber to win one million dollars, because the day after it's all over, nothing else will be worth cuddling with that rock-stupid sleazebag. If she could only be playing him for a fool. Leaving aside how much I detest Rob (and at this point, it's best left aside because it's become truly inexpressible), if indeed Amber were toying with him it would confirm everything that I've always believed about women – that they know exactly how we tick and we will forever be hopelessly under their power. (And a fish really doesn't need a bicycle.) Plus, it does nobody any good to have yet another televised example of some girl getting googly eyed at a broad-shouldered dude and completely forgetting about the goals she started out with. That would just be sad. If she really is falling for him, heaven help her. Heaven help us all.

So, here's one small example. Rob is a goddamn idiot, because he never stops acting like he's the king of Chapera, and he arrogantly reminds us at every opportunity how it's only as a result of his "patience" that Rupert is still around and that when Rob decides, then whatever person goes. This is a colossally terrible move, because we all know exactly what happens when someone seems to have the lion's share of the power, especially if he doesn't do anything to diminish that appearance. Colby certainly knows. So, it's very stupid for him to be so obnoxious, especially since it gains him nothing. If what he says is true (and so far it is), then he doesn't need to crow about it, he can exert his power quietly and keep from being such an obvious target. But he has to be a big jerk because that's who he is. What a putz. Sadly, the only strategies dumber and less promising than Rob's are those of every other person on Chapera, because they keep letting him get away with it. I think people like Alicia and Jenna are way too busy considering the merge, rather than dealing with what is in front of them. As we've all agreed by now, the merge will never happen, and then what will they do? They need to realize that this game is too unpredictable for them to bide their time and expect some future element to come to their rescue.

And, on the topic of Burnett eliminating the merge in order to stun the All-Stars (hey, it could still happen!), Rob and Amber really should be hoping I'm right about that. Because, in a merge situation, not only do they have to fight against each other in the "every man for himself" post-merge game, but their alliance also becomes an extremely easy target for everyone else, because they're playing the game wrong. Their alliance is built on the wrong things, and they're not hiding it so they've lost the only advantage that might have gained them. In a two-team game, they are a pretty sizable bloc, but with a ten-person game, they're sitting ducks.

So, Rob has a terrible strategy because he isn't thinking forward at all, he's just continuing to be delighted with himself for being powerful in the present. (Which any Survivor viewer can tell you, can change in an instant.) But, he's been lucky that his team is more clueless than he is up to now, which, in turn, has made him think that he's doing something right. Arg! This show!

But, let's not forget the theme: strategy as thinking ahead, and strategy as predicting what others are thinking (or, what they're likely to think in a given situation). Because now is the part where you are spellbound by my shining beacon of illustration for that theme: Rock, Paper, Scissors.

As you may be aware, a year or so ago, in a fit of insomnia, I cooked up what I feel is a rather strong Rock, Paper, Scissors strategy. I'm not the first to publish such a strategy, but I think my work might be the strongest in terms of probability and psychology. (But then, I'm biased.) Here's how it goes. Always shoot rock first. I don't have any tangible data in front of me, but I'm willing to bet that at least 80% of the time, people shoot rock or scissors first. It's human psychology. People aren't thinking forward, they're not working strategically. They're just thinking of Rock, Paper, Scissors as an entirely random game, wherein you shoot whatever you can and just hope for good luck. This is how people think. Sad, really. But, if you're thinking strategically, it's a huge bonus. Because they're just going to throw something out at the last second, and you can predict what that is. Advantage! Here's why I say rock and scissors are so likely: It's basic anatomy. Rock and scissors are significantly more convenient hand positions than paper in this situation. Because you just did rock three times. So, rock, rock, rock, rock is about the least work you can possibly do. (Short of, rock, rock, rock, go sit down.) Scissors is slightly more work – you flip out two fingers – but people will be tempted to do it some of the time because just going with rock seems so obvious, and they feel like they have to do something. So, if you shoot rock first, you're virtually guaranteed to at least tie (if they shoot rock) or even win (if they shoot scissors). Nobody shoots paper. (Look at Rob and Jerri. They shoot rock and scissors, respectively. See? Nobody shoots paper.) Now, if your opponent shot scissors (like Jerri), you're home free. If they shot rock, and you tied, it starts to get complicated. Now you have to go again right away, and there are two ways to think about this. One is to go with rock again, because your opponent may still be playing "randomly" and rock is easiest. I'm reminded of Kramer and Mickey playing Rock, Paper, Scissors on Seinfeld and for some reason getting confused and thinking that nothing beats rock. ("Rock, paper, scissors... Rock! Rock, paper, scissors... Rock!") However, I favor scissors in this situation, and here's why: both of you just shot rock, and so that is fresh in your opponent's mind. They're thinking "Rock! I know what beats rock! Paper, ha!" and so they will shoot paper in the assumption that you will shoot rock again – basing that assumption on the fact that you just shot rock and so obviously you have some preference for it. Your scissors cut their paper, and you're the victor. However, if they reason this out, or if they panic and go straight to rock again, then you're in trouble. So, at this point, it is helpful to know your adversary, if at all possible. Do you think they're the type to think, "Whoa! Rock-rock tie! I'd better think about this!" or are they the type to think, "Paper beats rock, ha!"? It's a gamble, but I still say scissors is probably the best way to go. If you're the only one armed with my strategy, you're set, buddy! (However, if you know that your opponent has read this, you may have to shoot paper first. I think you'll be the first person in history to ever shoot paper.)

The point is, there are two ways to look at Rock, Paper, Scissors: passive and active. You can believe that it's a random game of chance and you just have to pick one at the last second and see what happens, or you can employ some strategy, reason out what your opponent might be thinking, and try to gain an advantage by planning ahead. I'm not saying that Jerri is playing passively and Rob is playing actively; that bastard just got lucky. But, either one of them could have played Rock, Paper, Scissors actively, if they'd just put their minds to it, just as anyone on the island could be playing Survivor actively – but they're not.

Consider Ethan. Ethan is this week's King of Strategic Fuckery. This week's TribCon was his to win. Right after last week's vote, he was vulnerable, but – predictably – Lex immediately focuses his sights on Ethan. At this point, Ethan has a perfect opportunity to get rid of Lex, but he screws it up because he isn't thinking strategically. He's thinking reactively, or not thinking at all. Lex approaches Ethan to have this honorable man-to-man talk about how he's going to eliminate Ethan, which is dumb from Lex's point of view but doesn't really mean anything in terms of the game. Ethan already knew this; knew it as soon as Colby left. So, if anything, maybe it messes with Ethan's head enough to throw him off course, but I doubt it. I think Lex telling Ethan is a push. What Ethan does next, though, is typical "Ha! Paper!" thinking. He goes after Jerri. He thinks, "Well, Jerri's unpopular, so I should have no trouble organizing a vote against her." First off, from a numbers standpoint, this is a bad idea. Ethan needs as many votes as he can get, and he knows he isn't getting Lex's vote. Therefore, he should go after every other vote in Mogo Mogo, including Jerri. So, Lex is the only sensible target. Strategically, Lex is more than just the last resort choice, though. Strategically, Lex is a brilliant choice. Jerri may be unpopular, but so is Shii Ann. (I love that Lex refers to Ethan as "dead weight" at one point. Out of all the dead weight, Jerri and Shii Ann are the deadest and the heaviest.) When it comes time for Tribal Council, the motivator is not snitty bickering – it's fear. Nobody fears Jerri. As much as they may hate her, they don't fear her, so Ethan has nothing on which to build a case. However, Lex can be feared. Lex is positioning himself as a mastermind, and everybody fears that. Ethan simply has to go to each of the women and say, "Look at Lex. In a power play, he took out Colby and now he's coming for me. If I were you, I'd worry about all that control. Now, maybe you want me and maybe you don't, but I think – for this week – it makes good sense to eliminate Lex before his power becomes too great. Then, next week, we sort things out however we have to." I think people would have subscribed to this outlook, and it would've given him another week to build a case against Jerri or – please! – Shii Ann. It's not that I particularly don't want Lex to win, I just want to see people playing smart strategy, and that would've been smart strategy for Ethan. Trying to get Kathy to vote for Jerri isn't. She may want to, but it's going to be impossible to ensure that she and Shii Ann both see the value in that, plus then they'd have Lex around next week, upset at everybody for switching things around, and nobody wants that unpredictability. That's bad for Ethan, Kathy, and Shii Ann. No, the only smart way would be to go for Lex. Kathy probably would vote for Lex on the merit of the power argument alone, but if not, she seems to get along well with Shii Ann, and Shii Ann would definitely vote for Lex. Shii Ann would leap at the chance to vote for Lex here, because it would be an opportunity for her to best his gamesmanship. It's entirely indicative of how bad she is at this game that she hasn't devised a ploy of her own, but that's just it – she's not good at Survivor, she just really believes that she is. So, she'd vote happily for Lex because he's in control and she loves to show that those in control can be toppled – she just doesn't know how to do it, which is why it's a shame Ethan didn't approach her; it would have saved him. Shii Ann would most likely have brought Kathy along if she weren't already on board. Sure, Jerri may or may not have abandoned Lex. On the one hand, she's reportedly 150 trillion percent devoted to him, but on the other hand, she's only playing this game for revenge, and she's outlasted Colby, so from here on out she may be pretty flexible. But, even without Jerri, at 3-2, Ethan wins. Lex creates a real vulnerability for himself, and Ethan doesn't capitalize on it because he isn't thinking forward and he isn't putting himself in the minds of the women he's trying to ally with. Probst wasn't wrong about the John Nash math – non-cooperative parties will negotiate down to terms at which both benefit equally from the resolution. Eliminating Jerri doesn't offer anything tangible to Kathy or Shii Ann; in fact, it offers negative consequences in terms of an angry Lex. Voting Lex off the island is mutually beneficial to all parties. That's why Lex is the perfect choice.

But Ethan was never a power player. I didn't watch Africa, but Andy says he won by coasting, and I'll believe that. He's entirely too emotional about this. (Not in a tearful way; he just allows his feelings to cloud his ability to play the game.) When Lex is being a loser and explaining his move to vote Ethan out ("It's not you, it's me."), Ethan shouldn't be arguing with him about whether it's "fair." He should be walking away and organizing a vote against him.

Too bad. I think I finally understand why I loathe Shii Ann so much. (I mean, she's always gotten under my skin, but lately it's been this all-consuming hate-fire with the intensity of a supernova.) She represents exactly what's wrong with Survivor: All-Stars, and she just represents it more strongly than the others. Everybody on this show is doing a terrible job of strategizing, and I think it's the all-star thing that's causing it. They're nervous about returning to the game amidst other players who've been there before, and they're constantly on edge because they're realizing that nothing really prepares you for Survivor, not even a previous appearance on Survivor. The elements, the personalities, and the twists are just too overpowering, so everybody who thought, "Oh, I've done this before," is realizing that they're as lost as they were the first time, only now they're afraid that they're the only ones. Everyone else seems so composed. (Well, they would if you were on the island yourself, and panicking.) So, in order not to seem weak, everyone is spending all their time trying to look like they're strategizing, and it's consuming so much of their time that they don't have any time left for actual strategy. (As much as it pains me to say it, so far Rob is the only one having any real success.) Again, out of all of these, Shii Ann is the worst, because her attempts to look strategic are so transparent and her attempts to be strategic are so weak and misguided. And because she's a smug bitch about it all the time. (And no, I don't mean Katie Couric/Hillary Clinton "strong, independent woman" bitch; I mean actual bitch.) I squealed with glee at the ceremonious return of the hate-bot this week, at Tribal Council. Probst takes a quick pee break while the hate-bot steps in and queries Shii Ann, "isn't it nice when someone [Jerri] puts herself on the line," so she can draw some fire and you can continue to exist in this game for doing absolutely nothing? Glee squeal! That was beautiful.

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